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MNI BOE Preview - June 2024: Further clarity unlikely

We think there is a greater chance of guidance changing after the election than in the June Statement (barring a large services CPI surprise). We also think there might be smaller long-dated APF sales ops in Q3.

BoE - PreviewCentral Bank PreviewHomepageGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - UKCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
  • Barring a huge surprise to June CPI on Wednesday, the MNI Markets team (and consensus) expects no change to Bank Rate, guidance or the vote split. We think this is due to a combination of the data and the election.
  • Looking further ahead, we note that there is a roughly two week period after the election before the BOE’s quiet period kicks in again ahead of the August MPC meeting. This will give Governor Bailey and any other MPC members ample opportunity to communicate any changed messaging ahead of the August meeting.
  • We also look at the APF sales schedule for Q3-24 where we expect smaller long-dated operations to round off this year's active sales.
For the full MNI UK CPI Preview including summaries of over 20 sellside analysts' views see:

MNI BoE Preview - Jun24.pdf

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  • Barring a huge surprise to June CPI on Wednesday, the MNI Markets team (and consensus) expects no change to Bank Rate, guidance or the vote split. We think this is due to a combination of the data and the election.
  • Looking further ahead, we note that there is a roughly two week period after the election before the BOE’s quiet period kicks in again ahead of the August MPC meeting. This will give Governor Bailey and any other MPC members ample opportunity to communicate any changed messaging ahead of the August meeting.
  • We also look at the APF sales schedule for Q3-24 where we expect smaller long-dated operations to round off this year's active sales.
For the full MNI UK CPI Preview including summaries of over 20 sellside analysts' views see:

MNI BoE Preview - Jun24.pdf