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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- An extra sentence was added to the guidance adding further focus to data dependency.
- There was a deemphasis on labour market data – with the focus now firmly on inflation persistence. However, wage data is only less important than CPI if less costs are passed through. So subcomponents of the PMI data as well as the Agents' survey have increased further in importance.
- Medium-term forecasts point to markets not pricing enough cuts while near-term inflation and wage forecasts raise the bar for upside surprises.
- In addition, Ramsden joined Dhingra voting for an immediate cut - making a 7-2 vote split.
- The MNI Markets team now assign around a 50% probability of a June cut see a 40% probability of an August cut and see a 10% probability that rate cuts are delayed further. Prior to the May meeting we had looked for a 10% probability of a May cut, a 30% probability of June, 40% probability of August and 20% probability of a delay beyond August.
For the full PDF including summaries of over 20 sellside views click here:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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