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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- The MPC’s March meeting saw no hawkish dissenters and unchanged forward guidance.
- Together with the change in the vote shift and looking more closely at the Minutes and Governor Bailey’s accompanying statement, we think that there was a significant dovish shift.
- The MNI Markets team continues to see around a 15% probability of a first cut in May, increase our view of the first cut in June to 35% (up from 30%), maintain our 40% probability view of an August first cut and now see a 10% probability (down from 15%) of the first cut being delayed further.
- We also analyze how analyst expectations have evolved. There has been a slight shift in expectations post-meeting here with 3/22 analysts still expecting a first cut in May, 10/22 June, 9/22 August with none of the analyst reviews we have read looking for a first cut in September.
- In addition, we look at the DMO's issuance alongside the BOE's APF sales calendars for the April to June period.
For the full PDF including summaries of over 20 sellside views, issuance calendars and key gilt operations details click here:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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