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MNI ECB Review - June 2024: First cut but little guidance

The ECB cut its three policy rates by 25bp as it had widely telegraphed and kept its data-dependent guidance without any precommitment to any further moves.

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  • The ECB cut its three policy rates by 25bp as it had widely telegraphed and kept its data-dependent guidance without any precommitment to any further moves.
  • Unless there is a significant surprise, there seems to be little appetite from the ECB to cut rates at their next meeting in July.
  • it seems as though the ECB is hoping it can cut again in September – but is far too wary of any stickiness in the data to want to give anything further away. We noted in our preview that there was a non-negligible chance that this could end up to be a one-and-done cut (and that the market appeared to be underpricing this possibility) and there has been little in the June meeting to change that view.
  • We summarise over 30 sellside analyst reviews.
For the full MNI ECB review see:

ECB Review June 2024.pdf

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  • The ECB cut its three policy rates by 25bp as it had widely telegraphed and kept its data-dependent guidance without any precommitment to any further moves.
  • Unless there is a significant surprise, there seems to be little appetite from the ECB to cut rates at their next meeting in July.
  • it seems as though the ECB is hoping it can cut again in September – but is far too wary of any stickiness in the data to want to give anything further away. We noted in our preview that there was a non-negligible chance that this could end up to be a one-and-done cut (and that the market appeared to be underpricing this possibility) and there has been little in the June meeting to change that view.
  • We summarise over 30 sellside analyst reviews.
For the full MNI ECB review see:

ECB Review June 2024.pdf