MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Apr 25

• The EU, Belgium, Italy and Germany are due to sell bonds next week. We look for gross nominal issuance of E20.6bln, down from E24.6bln this week.
• There are E44.1bln of redemptions in the week ahead. The majority of this is E42.9bln of the originally 10-year 3.00% Apr-22 OAT. The formerly 30-year 8.25% Apr-22 OAT is also due to mature with E1.0bln outstanding.
• Coupon payments are expected to come in at E10.8bln with the majority being Spanish (E10.6bln).
• This would leave estimated net flows for the week at negative E34.3bln (from positive E15.0bln this week).

Full document: EZ220425.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

• The EU will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with up to E2.5bln of the 0.40% Feb-37 Green EU (ISIN: EU000A3K4C42) on offer.
• Belgium will then look to sell a combined E2.8-3.8bln of the benchmark 10/30-year OLOs and a 6-year OLO. On offer will be the 0.80% Jun-27 OLO (ISIN: BE0000341504), the 0.35% Jun-32 OLO (ISIN: BE0000354630) and the 1.40% Jul-53 OLO (ISIN: BE0000355645).
• On Tuesday, Italy will look to sell on-the-run BTP Short Term and 5-year BTPei: E2.25-2.75bln of the 0% Nov-23 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005482309) and E0.75-1.00bln of the 0.65% May-26 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005415416).
• Germany will come to the market on Wednesday morning to sell E2bln of the new 15-year May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
• Italy will conclude issuance on Friday with 5/10-year BTP and CCTeus on offer. We expect the benchmark 5/10-year BTPs to be reopened: the 1.10% Apr-27 BTP and the 0.95% Jun-32 BTP. However, there is a chance that we see a new 10-year Dec-32 BTP launched given that the 0.95% Jun-32 BTP is around benchmark size. In addition, we look for the first reopening via auction of the Oct-30 CCTeu.