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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 1 July, 2024

  • Germany, Spain, France, and Belgium all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.4bln, down from E25.3bln this week.
  • We also expect funding plan updates from both Ireland and Portugal.
  • The upcoming week sees a single redemption of E14.1bln from a formerly 5-year BTP.
  • Coupon payments for the week are E8.0bln, of which E6.0bln are German, E0.7bln are Italian, E0.7bln from EU-bonds while E0.5bln are Finnish.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E1.3bln, versus negative E1.2bln this week.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240701.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • On Tuesday Germany will kick off issuance with a Green auction. On offer will be E500mln of each of the 0% Aug-30 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030708) and the 0% Aug-50 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030724).
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to sell E5bln of the new 10-year Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031). The coupon will be confirmed on Tuesday.
  • Spain on Thursday, will look to issue a Bono / Obli / ObliEi auction, including the launch of the new 7-year 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43). Also on offer will be the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the 1.85% Jul-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012E69) and the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday. For the nominals, we look for an upper limit of either E6.0bln or E6.5bln (a little higher than recent auctions given we have the new 7-year) and a E250-750mln range for the ObliEi.
  • France also on Thursday, will hold an auction to sell E8.0-10.5bln of the LT OATs. On offer will be the 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7), the 1.25% May-34 OAT (ISIN: FR0013313582), the 0.75% May-53 OAT (ISIN: FR0014004J31) and the 1.75% May-66 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154028).
  • Belgium, on Friday, will conclude issuance by holding an ORI Facility, likely for up to E500mln. Details will be announced Thursday.
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