MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 15 April, 2024

• Slovakia, the Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain and France are all due to issue in the week ahead.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E41.9bln.
• We see Austria and Italy as the most likely to hold syndications this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E29.8bln: E18.8bln from formerly 3-year BTP, E5.5bln from a formerly 5-year EFSF-bond, E5.0bln from a formerly 10-year RFGB and E0.6bln from a formerly 5-year LithGB. There will also be E5.0bln of coupon payments due: E2.4bln German, E1.0bln Portuguese, E0.8bln Italian and E0.7bln Finnish.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E7.2bln.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240415.pdf

Supply Next Week

• Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with a SlovGB auction. On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-26 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024675), the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will come to the market to hold a DDA to tap the on-the-run 30-year 2.00% Jan-54 DSL (ISIN: NL00150012X2) for E4-5bln (we expect the top of the target range to be sold). The initial spread guidance over the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund will be announced on Monday 15 April.
• Also on Tuesday, Finland will look to sell a combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294).
• Greece will look to hold a GGB auction on Wednesday. We look for a E250-300mln size with details to be announced on Tuesday.
• Wednesday will also see Germany hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) and E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004).
• Spain will come to the market on Thursday to hold a Bono/Olbi auction. On offer will be the 2.50% May-27 Bono, the 1.95% Jul-30 Obli, the 3.25% Apr-34 Obli and the 3.45% Jul-66 Obli. Auction sizes will be confirmed on Monday.
• France will hold an MT OAT auction on Thursday. On offer will be a combined E11.0-12.5bln of the 0% Feb-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0014003513), the 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6), the new 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN TBD) and the 0% May-32 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007L00). The launch of the new Feb-30 OAT was in line with our expectations.
• France will conclude issuance for the week later on Thursday, with an IL OAT auction. On offer will be a combined E1.5-2.0bln of the 0.55% Mar-39 OATi (ISIN: FR001400IKW5), the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88) and then 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).