MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 18 March, 2024

• The EU, Slovakia, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain, France, Ireland and Italy are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E42.3bln, up from E23.1bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E9.3bln: E8.0bln from a 10-year IGB, and E1.3bln of two 12-year GGBs, of which 0.2bln were held by the ECB. Coupon payments will be E0.9bln (of which E0.4bln are Irish bonds and E0.3bln are Greek).
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E32.1bln versus negative E1.6bln this week.
  

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240318.pdf

Supply Next Week

• The EU will hold a syndication in the W/C 18 March. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding which bonds will be on offer. We have pencilled in a transaction size of E7bln, in line with February’s 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond syndication.
• Slovakia will kick off conventional issuance for the week on Monday with a SlovGB auction. None of the new SlovGBs that have launched this year will be on offer at this auction. We pencil in an auction size of E500-600mln with the following SlovGBs on offer: the 3-year 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 8-year 4.00% Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 9-year 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230) and the 11-year 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539).
• The first Belgian conventional auction of 2024 is scheduled to be held on Monday. On offer will be a combined E3.3-3.9bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694), the 15-year 2.75% Apr-39 Green OLO (ISIN: BE0000356650) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.50% Jun-55 OLO (ISIN: BE0000361700).
• On Tuesday, Finland will look to issue up to a combined E1.5bln of the on-the-run 5/10-year RFGBs: the 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the 3.00% Sep-33 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000550249).
• Wednesday will see Greece come to the market with details to be confirmed the prior day.
• Wednesday will also see Germany come to the market to sell E1bln of the 2.50% Jul-44 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135481) alongside E1bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572).
• Spain will come to the market on Thursday to hold a Bono/Olbi auction, with auction sizes to be announced on Monday 18 March. On offer will be the 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the 5.75% Jul-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012411) and the 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95). This will be only the second time a nominal Obli with a longer maturity than 15 years will be on offer at a conventional auction this calendar year.
• France will then hold a MT OAT auction for E11.0-12.5bln (a step up from the more normal E12.0bln upper limit). We will see a reopening of the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6) alongside the on-the-run 5-year 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (possibly for the last time before a new issue in April). Alongside these the 1.50% May-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0012993103) will be on offer.
• Thursday will also see Ireland come to the market to hold its first auction since September (although there has been a new 10-year IGB sold via syndication since then). We expect this 10-year 2.60% Oct-34 IGB (ISIN: IE000LQ7YWY4) to be reopened alongside another IGB at this auction. Details will be announced on Monday.
• France will conclude the day’s issuance with an IL OAT auction for E1.5-2.0bln. On offer will be the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
• Italy will come to the market on Friday 22 March to conclude issuance for the week with a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We expect a reopening of the 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302) which was launched in February but don’t have a strong conviction regarding the BTPei on offer.
• Calendar Updates:
  • Germany will confirm its Q2 issuance calendar on Tuesday at 10:00GMT / 11:00CET.
  • The Netherlands will publish its Q2 outlook and calendar on Friday.