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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 20 May, 2024

  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Greece and Germany all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • On the syndication side, the EFSF has sent an RFP while we see Spain and Austria as the most likely candidates to hold syndications in our view.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.8bln, down from E43.0bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week are E0.7bln: E0.3bln Italian and E0.2bln Austrian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E27.6bln.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240520.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EFSF sent an RfP for an “upcoming” transaction on Wednesday 15 May. We look for up to E5bln to be sold (but a smaller E3-4bln transaction is equally possible). Note that there is a E4.5bln redemption due of a former 10-year EFSF-bond due on 27 June. We look for the transaction to take place on Monday or Tuesday. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding what will be on offer.
  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with a SlovGB auction. The 3.00% Feb-26 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024675), the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865) and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) will all be on offer.
  • Germany will come to the market on Tuesday with E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026) on offer.
  • Also on Tuesday, Finland will hold a conventional auction for up to E1.5bln of on-the-run 5/10-year RFGBs. On offer will be the 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104).
  • On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will be announced the proceeding day.
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023).
  • Belgium will open books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276). The coupon will be announced on Wednesday.
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