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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 20 May, 2024

Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Greece and Germany all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.On the syndication side, the EFSF has sent an RFP while we see Spain and Austria as the most likely other candidates.

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  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Greece and Germany all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • On the syndication side, the EFSF has sent an RFP while we see Spain and Austria as the most likely candidates to hold syndications in our view.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.8bln, down from E43.0bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week are E0.7bln: E0.3bln Italian and E0.2bln Austrian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E27.6bln.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240520.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EFSF sent an RfP for an “upcoming” transaction on Wednesday 15 May. We look for up to E5bln to be sold (but a smaller E3-4bln transaction is equally possible). Note that there is a E4.5bln redemption due of a former 10-year EFSF-bond due on 27 June. We look for the transaction to take place on Monday or Tuesday. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding what will be on offer.
  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with a SlovGB auction. The 3.00% Feb-26 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024675), the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865) and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) will all be on offer.
  • Germany will come to the market on Tuesday with E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026) on offer.
  • Also on Tuesday, Finland will hold a conventional auction for up to E1.5bln of on-the-run 5/10-year RFGBs. On offer will be the 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104).
  • On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will be announced the proceeding day.
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023).
  • Belgium will open books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276). The coupon will be announced on Wednesday.
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  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Greece and Germany all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • On the syndication side, the EFSF has sent an RFP while we see Spain and Austria as the most likely candidates to hold syndications in our view.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.8bln, down from E43.0bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week are E0.7bln: E0.3bln Italian and E0.2bln Austrian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E27.6bln.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240520.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EFSF sent an RfP for an “upcoming” transaction on Wednesday 15 May. We look for up to E5bln to be sold (but a smaller E3-4bln transaction is equally possible). Note that there is a E4.5bln redemption due of a former 10-year EFSF-bond due on 27 June. We look for the transaction to take place on Monday or Tuesday. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding what will be on offer.
  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with a SlovGB auction. The 3.00% Feb-26 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024675), the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865) and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) will all be on offer.
  • Germany will come to the market on Tuesday with E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026) on offer.
  • Also on Tuesday, Finland will hold a conventional auction for up to E1.5bln of on-the-run 5/10-year RFGBs. On offer will be the 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104).
  • On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will be announced the proceeding day.
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023).
  • Belgium will open books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276). The coupon will be announced on Wednesday.