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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 22 April, 2024

The EU is due to hold a syndication while Italy and Germany are the only countries scheduled to hold auctions in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week from currently announced operations at E21.0bln.

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  • The EU is due to hold a syndication while Italy and Germany are the only countries scheduled to hold auctions in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week from currently announced operations at E21.0bln.
  • However, we also think there is a good chance that we see a ramp up in the syndication schedule with Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Portugal and Spain all having the potential to come to the market as early as this week, likely boosting the amount on offer through the week.
  • The week ahead sees a single redemption of E5.0bln from a formerly 8-year ESM-bond.
  • Coupon payments total E9.2bln, of which E8.4bln are French and E0.3bln Belgian.
  • Together with some reasonable syndications, this leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E23.4bln, versus negative E4.1bln this week.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240422.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will look to hold a syndication in the week ahead. We don’t have a strong conviction of what will be on offer.
  • Italy will come to the market on Tuesday with a BTP ST / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302), E1.00-1.25bln of the 5-year 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 12-year 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to launch the new Jun-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22056) via auction for E5bln. The coupon will be confirmed on Monday.
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023) on offer.
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  • The EU is due to hold a syndication while Italy and Germany are the only countries scheduled to hold auctions in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week from currently announced operations at E21.0bln.
  • However, we also think there is a good chance that we see a ramp up in the syndication schedule with Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Portugal and Spain all having the potential to come to the market as early as this week, likely boosting the amount on offer through the week.
  • The week ahead sees a single redemption of E5.0bln from a formerly 8-year ESM-bond.
  • Coupon payments total E9.2bln, of which E8.4bln are French and E0.3bln Belgian.
  • Together with some reasonable syndications, this leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E23.4bln, versus negative E4.1bln this week.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240422.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will look to hold a syndication in the week ahead. We don’t have a strong conviction of what will be on offer.
  • Italy will come to the market on Tuesday with a BTP ST / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302), E1.00-1.25bln of the 5-year 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 12-year 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to launch the new Jun-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22056) via auction for E5bln. The coupon will be confirmed on Monday.
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023) on offer.