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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jan 16

  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions next week while we also pencil in a Greek syndication. We look for gross nominal issuance at first round operations of E30.5bln for these deals, down from E51.5bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees the first redemptions of 2023 with a total of E31.9bln due.
  • In addition there will be coupon payments of E4.7bln due (of which E4.0bln are Portuguese).
  • With gross nominal issuance of E30.5bln we look for net flows of negative -E6.1bln in the week ahead, down from this week’s positive E51.4bln of net issuance.

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Week Ahead Supply

  • The week ahead should be a little quieter for syndications. We see a good chance of a Greek syndication. We do not have a strong conviction on what maturity will be on offer but think it would be unlikely to see a new 10-year GGB with a maturity in 2033 given that there is already over E12bln of debt servicing costs in that year (and the PDMA at present is keeping debt servicing costs below E13bln per year). in contrast there is plenty of scope to reopen the 1.75% Jun-32 GGB that was launched in June 2022 with just E3.7bln outstanding and only around E9bln of debt servicing costs due in 2032 at present. MNI also thinks there is a chance that a new 2034 bond is launched in 2023 (although the launch of this could be delayed to January 2024).
  • In terms of auctions, Slovakia will kick off on Monday with the 4-year 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 4.00% 10-year Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 15-year 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) and the 25-year 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400) all on offer.
  • On Tuesday, Germany will look to launch the new Apr-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25000) via auction for E5bln. The coupon will be confirmed on Monday but is expected to be at least 2%.
  • Also Tuesday, Finland will look to sell up to E750mln of each of the 5-year 1.375% Apr-27 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000527551) and the 10-year 1.50% Sep-32 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000523238).
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold the first of its dual-line 30-year Bund auctions. On offer will be E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) and E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
  • Spain will come to the market on Thursday with the following Oblis on offer: the 0% Jan-28 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012I08), the 0.50% Apr-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F76) and the 4.90% Jul-40 Obli (ISIN: ES00000120N0). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday.
  • Also Thursday, France will look to sell E9-10bln of MT OATs. On offer will be last year’s 3-year 0% Feb-25 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007TY9), the 5-year 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400AIN5) and the off-the-run 0.50% May-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013407236).
  • France will then conclude issuance for the week with its linker auction with a combined E1.25-1.75bln on offer of the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491) and the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51).

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