MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jan 23

• The Netherlands, Germany and Italy are due to hold auctions and we expect syndications from the EU, Spain and France. We look for gross nominal issuance at first round operations of E32.3bln for these deals, in line with this week’s E32.6bln.
• The upcoming week sees no redemptions and coupons of just E0.5bln.
• With gross nominal issuance of E32.3bln we look for net flows of positive E31.8bln in the week ahead, more than reversing this week’s negative -E6.8bln of net issuance.

EZ230123.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The week ahead sees an EU-bond auction syndication scheduled. We don’t have a high conviction on what will be on offer. The EU seems to be moving away a little from syndications in favour of larger auctions, which may reduce the chance of a dual-tranche syndication or at least reduce the total size of the syndication.
• MNI also expects Spain to hold a syndication to launch a new 10-year Apr-33 Obli for E10bln. Furthermore we pencil in a French syndication (albeit with lower conviction) and note that a 30-year OAT or 10-20-year OATi could be on offer.
• In terms of auctions, the Netherlands will kick off the week on Tuesday with E1.5-2.0bln of the 2.00% Jan-54 DSL (ISIN: NL00150012X2) on offer. This will be the first reopening of the 30-year DSL since it was launched via DDA in September.
• Also Tuesday, Germany will come to the market with E1.5bln of the 0% Oct-25 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE0001030716) on offer. Note that the issue has a residual maturity of around 3-years and marks the first of 5 green auctions in 2023 (with 2 green syndications due too). Germany plans to sell E15-17bln of green securities this year.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E1.5bln of the 15-year 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) on offer.
• Italy will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with the its BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We would expect a new BTP Short Term to be launched, probably with a Nov-24 maturity, but we have less conviction surrounding the BTPei that will be on offer.