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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jul 25

  • Italy, Germany and the EU are due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E16.8bln, down from this week’s E26.3bln sold.
  • The week ahead sees the redemption of a France OATei originally issued as a long 10-year in 2010 for E24.8bln.
  • In addition there are E6.5bln of coupon payments due – of which E6.1bln are French.
  • Together with estimated gross issuance of E16.8bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of negative E14.5bln next week, versus this week’s positive E25.9bln.

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Week Ahead Supply:

  • Italy will kick off issuance for the week on Tuesday with E2.0-2.5bln of the 1.75% May-24 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005499311) and E0.75-1.25bln of linkers. The linkers on offer will be the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) and the 2.55% Sep-41 BTPei (ISIN: IT0004545890).
  • Germany will come to the market on Wednesday to sell E4bln of the 1.70% Aug-32 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102606).
  • On Thursday, Italy will return to the market to sell 5/10-year BTPs and CCTeus. Details will be announced on Monday but MNI expects reopenings of the 5-year 2.65% Dec-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005500068), the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and the Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250).
  • In addition, the EU has stated that it will look to raise E1.035bln via private placement for its MFA programme over coming days.

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