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(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile


Trend Structure Remains Bullish


Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum


Key Support Still Exposed


Late Equity Roundup: 2W Highs

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  • The EFSF, the EU, Italy and Belgium are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for gross nominal issuance of E11.5bln, down from E35.2bln this week.
  • There are two notable upcoming redemptions: a Belgian OLO originally issued as in 2006 with a 15-year maturity for E12.9bln as well as a formerly 5-year Italian BTP for E16.7bln.
  • Coupon payments are expected to come in at E5.1bln (with E4.2bln from Finland).
  • This would leave net estimated net flows for the week at negative E23.1bln (down from positive E31.5bln this week).
Full document:


Week Ahead Supply:

  • The EFSF has issued an RFP for a syndication next week. We expect the transaction early in the week but we do not have a strong view on the size / maturity expected. The EFSF has moved away from quarterly issuance updates to a more flexible annual issuance target, but this makes it harder to estimate how much they are looking to front-load issuance in 2022 (if at all).
  • The EU will kick off auctions for the week on Monday with up to E2.5bln of the 7-year 0% Oct-28 EU NGEU bond on offer (ISIN: EU000A3KWCF4).
  • On Wednesday, Italy will come to the market with 5/10-year BTPs and a CCTeu auction pencilled in. We expect the MEF to continue to build up the 1.10% Apr-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005484552 ) and 0.95% Jun-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005466013 ). We think there is a good chance that the CCTeu auction is cancelled following this week's syndication. Details of what is offer will be announced later today.
  • Issuance for the week will conclude on Friday with Belgium holding an ORI facility operation for up to E500mln. Details will be confirmed on Thursday afternoon.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 |

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