MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Oct 23

• The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Finland are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E20.1bln, down from E47.1bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E62.6bln: a formerly 15-year French OAT for E44.9bln, a formerly 15-year Portuguese OT RAGB for E9.4bln and a formerly 7-year Belgian OLO for E8.3bln.
• Coupon payments for the week total E9.2bln of which E8.3bln are French and E0.5bln Portuguese.
• This leaves net flows for the week an estimated negative E51.7bln.

EZ231023.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with a 7/15-year EU-bond auction. On offer will be up to E2.5bln of the 3.125% Dec-30 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3LNF05) alongside up to E2.5bln of the 3.375% Oct-38 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D74).
• Monday will also see Belgium hold its last conventional bond auction of the year with a combined E2.6-2.9bln on offer: the 1.25% Apr-33 Green OLO (ISIN: BE0000346552), the on-the-run 10-year 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.30% Jun-54 OLO (ISIN: BE0000358672).
• The Netherlands will come to the market for the second time in October on Tuesday with the 10-year 2.50% Jul-33 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001AM2) on offer for E2.0-2.5bln.
• Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 2.40% Oct-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25018).
• On Wednesday, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction with details to be announced later today. We expect a reopening of the 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005557084) for up to E3.0bln, potentially alongside the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).
• Wednesday will also see Germany hold a 15-year Bund auction with E1.25bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E750mln of another off-the-run Bund.
• Thursday will see Finland come to the market to hold an ORI operation.