MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Sep 6

Executive Summary:

• Austria, Germany and Ireland will all hold auctions this week while there are possible syndications (with Spain and Slovenia the most likely, but Slovakia, Italy and Luxembourg also possible issuers). There will also be focus on the EU investor call on Wednesday. Taking into account just confirmed auctions, we look for E7.3bln of gross nominal issuance this week, substantially down from the E38.0bln sold last week.
• Redemptions this week are solely from Germany totalling E50bln with a 10-year Bund maturing on Saturday for E16bln, a Bobl maturing on Saturday for E21bln and Schatz maturing Friday for E13bln. In addition there are E1.2bln of coupons due. With gross nominal issuance of E7.3bln, net nominal issuance would be negative E43.8bln (in contrast to last week's positive E6.6bln).
• For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document.

EZ060921.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

• Austria will kick off issuance for the week on Tuesday with E1.61bln of 10/16-year RAGBs on offer: the 0% Feb-31 and the 4.15% Mar-37 RAGB.
• Germany will also hold a linker auction on Tuesday with E500mln nominal of the 0.50% Apr-30 ILB and E200mln nominal of the 0.10% Apr-46 ILB on offer.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to launch the 0% Aug-31 Green Bund for E3.5bln.
• The EU will hold an investor call on Wednesday at 8:00BST/9:00CET to give an update to borrowing plans for the remainder of 2021. Auction dates and confirmation of the launch of green bonds are expected. Note that there is expected to be one auction and one syndication each through at least the Sep-Nov period.
• Ireland will conclude issuance via auction for the week on Thursday with details to be announced Monday morning.
• Spain has announced that it will issue its inaugural green bond with a 20-year maturity in September. This week is the earliest opportunity for the bond to be launched and we think there is a good chance Spain chooses to hold a syndicated launch ahead of this week's ECB meeting.
• Slovenia announced that it would hold a tender offer to buy back 2.25% Mar-22 and 0.20% Mar-23 notes with the view of selling an ultra-long issue. We note that the tender offer expires Tuesday with results due Wednesday and think there is a decent chance we see an announcement Tuesday that a syndication will be held on Wednesday.