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MNI Gilt Week Ahead: Mini-Budget Reversal Continues

  • The Chancellor is due to make a statement this morning to row back further measures of the "Growth Plan" to provide financial stability ahead of the 31 October Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (11:00BST according to media reports).
  • The MNI Markets team expect gilt yields to remain high. Whatever happens from here investors will want to price an additional risk premium when assessing the value of gilts.
  • We talk through some options for the evolution of the Bank's balance sheet, and note that if the Bank wanted to unwind long gilt purchases at a pace of GBP580mln per week (the bucket size they had originally proposed), it would take over nine months to simply unwind the "temporary purchases" ahead of any long-dated APF holdings being disposed.
  • The week ahead will also see inflation data, retail sales data and consumer confidence data.
For the full document including gilt auction previews see:

GiltWeekAhead20221017.pdf

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