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MNI Gilt Week Ahead: Politics driving UK markets again

News of higher-than-expected public sector pay rises are driving UK markets again. We also look at last week's data and still see around a 50/50 probability of an August MPC cut.

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  • The weekend saw the independent pay review bodies recommend 5.5% increases for some public sector workers including doctors, nurses and teachers. We look at Reeves' weekend interview response and other political updates from the weekend, as well as the market reaction.
  • We also summarise last week's data and reaffirm that we still see around a 50/50 probability of an August MPC cut.
For the full MNI Gilt Week Ahead document see:

GiltWeekAhead20240722.pdf

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  • The weekend saw the independent pay review bodies recommend 5.5% increases for some public sector workers including doctors, nurses and teachers. We look at Reeves' weekend interview response and other political updates from the weekend, as well as the market reaction.
  • We also summarise last week's data and reaffirm that we still see around a 50/50 probability of an August MPC cut.
For the full MNI Gilt Week Ahead document see:

GiltWeekAhead20240722.pdf