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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Core CPI inflation was notably stronger than expected in January at 0.39% M/M (cons 0.3), and with the upside surprise coming from a wide range of services.
- It left core CPI tracking at 4.0% and 3.6% annualized over the past three and six months, whilst supercore inflation was far stronger still along with a surprise re-acceleration in owner equivalent rents.
- Part of this broad strength has fed through into core PCE estimates, preliminarily seen at 0.30% M/M for the strongest monthly print since Sept and before that April.
- Some question the extent to which this was driven by start-of-year price hikes which could revert in the next few months. Nevertheless, that will take time to resolve whilst increased inflationary breadth has built on January’s booming payrolls report and patient Fedspeak to further push out the expected starting point for rate cuts.
- Fed Funds futures only just fully price a first cut in June (from March six weeks ago) and whilst they’ve pared some of Tuesday’s move, they still have less than 100bps of cuts for 2024.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT BELOW:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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