MNI US Inflation Insight, Oct'22: Pushing The ‘Pivot’ Out Even Further?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Core CPI inflation again came in much stronger than expected in September: core goods showed signs of deceleration from easing supply chains and USD strength, but underlying services surged even further.
• There was moderately less breadth to inflation than in August, but that’s only comparing to the strongest median sequential inflation of the cycle, whilst year-ago rates hit new cycle highs.
• A fourth 75bp hike was locked in for the Nov 2 FOMC with growing focus on the chance of the same in December, especially so after today’s surprise rise in U.Mich inflation expectations.
• We'd thought previously that the Dec FOMC was the earliest we could see a "pivot" toward slowing the hike pace, but latest data makes it more likely to take into at least the mid-January CPI.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USInflationInsightOct2022.pdf