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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ARGENTINA
Economy Minister Sergio Massa has leapt into first place in political betting markets following his strong performance in the 22 October presidential election first round. According to date compiled by electionbettingodds.com, political bettors give Massa a 59.0% implied probability of winning the run-off, compared to 41.0% for his right-wing libertarian challenger Javier Milei.
- Massa from the Peronist Homeland Union (UP) scored an unexpected first place with 36.7% of the vote, while Milei came second with 30.0%. For Massa this result represents a 9.4% increase on the combined support for UP candidates in the August PASO primary.
- Conservative JxC candidate Patricia Bullrich came in third with 23.8% of the vote, meaning she misses out on the 19 Nov run-off. Her vote share was down from a combined 28.3% for JxC candidates in the PASO primary. This could suggest that some JxC voters who backed the more moderate Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in the primary switched their votes to Massa in the first round in order to try to deny the firebrand Milei the presidency.
- The split of Bullrich's vote come the run-off could prove crucial. With Milei receiving the same vote share in the first round as he did the primary, he will have to win almost all Bullrich's voters to get over the 50% mark required.
- In contrast, Massa is likely to pick up the votes of 4th and 5th placed candidates Juan Schiaretti (Federal Peronist, 6.8%) and Myriam Bregman (far-left, 2.7%), putting him within touching distance of the presidency.
Chart 1. Political Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com, Betfair, FTX, Predictit, Smarkets, Polymarket
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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