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May Core PCE Tracking Between 0.10-0.17%

US INFLATION

As we surmised yesterday from the PPI release, the net balance of PCE-relevant items suggested a slight downward revision to core PCE consensus was due for most post-CPI estimates (though there is some disagreement on that).

  • Below are the post-PPI (but pre-import price) estimates for May core PCE which is published on June 29. For context, April core PCE printed 0.25% M/M, with supercore PCE 0.27%; also recall that May's core CPI was 0.16% with supercore -0.04%:
  • Morgan Stanley - core PCE: 0.10% (supercore: 0.12%), was 0.12% pre-PPI
  • Nomura - core PCE 0.11% (supercore: 0.14%), was 0.17% pre-PPI
  • Citi: core PCE: 0.15%
  • JPMorgan - core PCE: 0.16% (was 0.13% post-CPI - they see the healthcare components of PPI as adding to core PCE pressure)
  • Deutsche - core PCE: 0.17%
  • Mizuho: core PCE: 0.2% (rounded) - like JPM note strong PPI healthcare
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