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May CPI Falls To 12.36% Confirming BanRep Turning Point Rhetoric

COLOMBIA
  • The key data release overnight was May CPI where the headline rate fell to 12.36%, below the surveyed median estimate of 12.60% and down from 12.82% in April. Despite the core monthly reading only rising 0.75% compared to +0.99% in April, this did tilt the annual core figure marginally higher to 11.59%.
  • Many analysts believe BanRep has come to an end of its hiking cycle, and although the central bank governor, Leonardo Villar, has acknowledged the turning point for inflation, he has said that BanRep cannot yet assure the tightening cycle is over. The next central bank meeting is scheduled for June 30.
  • Interestingly, Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla has said that Colombia’s central bank could discuss interest rate cuts in two months if inflation continues to slow.
  • “The expectation that we have this month is that the central bank will at least stabilize rates, and we will be looking at the trend of the next two months to see if rates begin to drop,” Bonilla, who is a voting member of the monetary policy committee, said in an audio file sent via text message by the finance ministry.
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