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May CPI Inflation, Trade Data, BCCh Minutes Due Today

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  • CPI inflation data for May will be published at 1300BST(0800ET), with the market expecting the chained measure to tick up to 4.1% y/y, from 4.0%. This will be followed by May trade data at 1330BST, where the consensus is for the trade surplus to moderate to $1.52bn, from $1.91bn.
  • Also at 1330BST, the central bank will release the minutes to its May monetary policy meeting, when it cut its policy rate by 50bp to 6.0%. Attention will be on the arguments for why the easing pace was slowed further at the meeting and for the Board’s preference on rate cuts ahead. Given recent FX strength, focus will also be on any discussions around external conditions, as well as the balance of risks to inflation. Yesterday, BCCh Governor noted reasons for caution on monetary policy, although she added that the central bank’s job is not done yet.
    • May CPI YoY Chained, est. 4.1%, prior 4.0%; MoM est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
    • May Trade Balance, est. $1.52b, prior revised $1.91b
    • May Copper Exports, prior $4.19b

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