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May CPI Preview - 08:30 EDT/13:30 BST.......>

US DATA
US DATA: May CPI Preview - 08:30 EDT/13:30 BST
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- May CPI is expected to rise by only 0.1% based on both the Bloomberg consensus
and MNI survey of analysts following larger gains in the previous three months.
- An MNI preview published on Monday showed that the key factor in the slower
pace of headline growth should be a seasonally adjusted decline in energy
prices, specifically gasoline. The PPI data released Tuesday confirmed this
shift downward after recent gains.
- Core CPI is forecast to rise by 0.2% by both Bloomberg and MNI, owing partly
to a rebound in apparel prices after two soft months.
- If the forecasted values are correct, the y/y rate for overall CPI should dip
to 1.9%, while the core rate should remain at 2.1%. 
- The MNI preview showed a tendency to overestimate May overall CPI in recent
years, so a downside surprise is possible.
- Core CPI has been very well forecasted in recent years, the MNI analysis
showed, so a surprise is much less likely.

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