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May Fed Hike Not Done Deal, But Pricing Off Overnight Lows

STIR

May FOMC hike pricing has steadied out after Tuesday afternoon's dip on First Republic asset sale headlines.

  • At 21bp currently, a 25bp hike is not quite a done deal (84% prob implied vs the 92%+ going into Tuesday), but that's above the 17bp post-FRC overnight low.
  • Fed terminal Funds rate is +1.6bp this morning to an implied target range of 4.99-5.24% by June, so 25bp in tightening is still expected by then.
  • Futures are implying about 70bp of cuts from peak to the end of the year, basically unchanged from Tuesday's close.


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