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May Fed Hike Pricing Bounces Back, With Next Month's PCE More Important

Implied May Fed hike pricing fell from 16bp to 13.5bp after that soft Feb PCE report, but it's since bounced back to 15bp.
  • The soft services ex-housing number is key to any Fed pause narrative but as we noted earlier, the April 28 PCE release will carry far more weight Let alone the rest of the year, for which 55bp of cuts from peak are priced (basically unchanged from pre-data).
  • MNI Chicago PMI coming up in a half hour.

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