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May Inflation Consensus Looks Closer To 6% Vs Stale Survey

EUROZONE DATA

The May prelim Eurozone inflation figure (1000BST) is set to come in below the BBG survey median, which stands at 6.3% Y/Y headline (7.0% Prior) 5.5% core (5.6% prior). No new estimates were submitted yesterday after various surprises in recent days.

  • To recap on Y/Y readings: French HICP came in lower than survey (6.0% vs 6.4% expected), as did Germany's (6.3% vs 6.7% expected), Spain's (2.9% vs 3.3% expected), and Portugal's (5.4% vs 6.0% expected); whereas Italy's beat (8.1% vs 7.5% expected), as did the Netherlands (6.8% vs 6.1% expected).
  • Checking in on a couple of analysts' post-German CPI views, it looks like consensus is converging toward 6% for headline, with core closer to 5.3-5.4%. An "in line" reading of 6.3%/5.5% would be a hawkish surprise.
  • Goldman downgraded their headline Y/Y forecast to 6.04% (was 6.11%) with core to 5.32% (from 5.43%); core inflation %M/M is seen at 0.19%. They note that the EUR49 transportation ticket pulled down German headline inflation by about 0.3pp.
  • JPMorgan downgraded their headline forecast to 6.1% Y/Y (-0.1% M/M) vs 6.4% in their prior estimate. Core 5.4% Y/Y (0.2% M/M), down from their previous 5.6% forecast.
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