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May Services Volume, Lula Cabinet Headlines

BRAZIL
  • More benign price action for the Real on Tuesday saw USDBRL decline the best part of 1% to 4.85. Inflation data came in broadly in line with estimates, confirming the most recent disinflation trend, and bolstering the calls for the imminent commencement of the easing cycle. DI pricing now sees a 25bp rate cut as the most likely scenario on August 02, although a bolder cut should not be ruled out. On Tuesday, economic policy director Diogo Guillen noted that Brazil has seen a drop in expectations for 2023 and longer scenarios, but they still remain above targets.
    • Services volume in May probably rose by 3.8% on a yearly comparison, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • Late Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that President Lula is mulling further cabinet adjustments in order to shore up support towards his ongoing legislative agenda. According to the article, Lula is contemplating handing more cabinet positions to centrist parties.
  • The government last week announced it would replace the tourism minister to shore up the backing of a key party in its coalition ahead of a round of priority votes. Lula has now opened negotiations over other positions with members of the Centrao, a bloc of parties that wields significant influence in Brazil’s conservative congress, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions. (BBG)
    • The reports were corroborated by other local media today such as Valor and Globo.
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