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MBA Mortgage Refi Applications Bounce With Rate Decline

US DATA
  • MBA mortgage applications increased 2.8% last week, owing to a strong bounce in refis (+13.9% after -8.9%) whilst purchases dipped -0.3% after +4.7% and a string of solid increases.
  • The 30Y conforming mortgage rate fell a further 20bps to 7.17%, it’s lowest since August along with the pullback in long-end Treasury yields.
  • Since the trough in seasonally adjusted mortgage activity seen shortly after the October peak of 7.9%, purchase applications have increased 15% vs refis 9%. It sees composite applications up 12%, but still only a third of 2019 averages.
  • The spread of the regular conforming rate to jumbo loan rates consolidated the prior week’s further decline, and at -18bps is the lowest since Jan’21 in a potential sign of tightening credit conditions.

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