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Measured Bear Steepening With Busy Schedule Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a measured bear steepening ahead of payrolls, a heavy schedule of Fedspeak plus both ECB’s Elderson and Rehn still to come.
  • The move slowly unwinds a late flattening yesterday, pushing 2s10s back to 36bps after touching 38bps yesterday.
  • Real yields continue to have driven the move higher in nominal yields whilst the inflation breakeven has slowly drifted lower after the initial lurch higher on the FOMC announcement and presser.
  • 2YY +1.9bps at 2.723%, 5YY +2.6bps at 3.034%, 10YY +3.8bps at 3.075% and 30YY +3.9bps at 3.159%.
  • TYM2 sits 3 ticks lower at 117-31 on above average volumes. The outlook remains bearish after clear break of the 118-08 Apr 22 low yesterday. Next support is eyed at yesterday’s low of 117-26 with resistance at 119-22+ (20-day EMA).
  • Data: The payrolls report for April dominates with the only other release consumer credit late on.
  • Fedspeak: Heavy schedule with 2x permanent voters, 1x’22 voter, 1x ’23 voter and 2x’24 voters and with potential for unscheduled appearances on the first day after the media blackout.
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