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Medium and Heavy Crude Supply Growth Drives Upside to Brent-Dubai: FGE

OIL

Global crude supply growth dominated by medium and heavy grades will drive upward pressure on Brent-Dubai differentials in Q3, according to FGE.

  • The spread is likely to remain weaker in the short term after OPEC+ extended output cuts until the end of June.
  • Supply growth will be dominated by medium and heavy barrels by late Q3 if OPEC+ cuts are eased.
  • Increasing heavy and medium supply from the Americas, including Canada, Brazil and Guyana will add to any return of Middle East supplies.
  • Gasoil/diesel cracks are weakening as high-sulfur fuel oil cracks improve and weakening the light/heavy spread.
  • An estimated 200k-300kb/d of lost supply due to Russia refinery attacks has provided some support to diesel markets. Balances are expected to remain long through most of the rest of the year.
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