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Medium-dated APF today should be well-digested; but there are risks

GILTS
  • There will be increased focus on today's medium-dated APF sales operation after last week's long-dated operation was the second-weakest since APF sales began (acheiving a bid-to-cover of 1.18x). Prior to that operation, long-dated ops in 2024 has seen bid-to-covers of 1.72x on average and ranging from 1.52-1.87x.
  • Medium-dated operations have been much more in demand recently, with bid-to-covers year-to-date averaging 2.48x, and the last two operations having seen bid-to-covers in excess of 3x.
  • Will today's APF operation be market moving? If all goes as expected and we see another medium-dated operation with a good bid-to-cover, we don't think so. However, if we see a similar deterioration in the bid-to-cover, potentially below 1.5x (note the second worst ever medium-dated APF had a bid-to-cover of 1.87x), we think that there could be more widespread concern surrounding demand for gilts, with potential for knock-on impacts to gilt futures.
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