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Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, April IP, Retail Sales Due Today

COLOMBIA
  • The finance ministry will present its Medium-Term Fiscal Framework at 1700BST(1200ET), which will include new estimates for the fiscal deficit and GDP growth. The framework will provide insight into the government's fiscal outlook at a time of ongoing pressure on the fiscal accounts. Earlier this week, congress approved a $17.6bn increase in the debt ceiling, while Moody’s warned that the fiscal deficit was likely to exceed the government’s 5.3% of GDP estimate.
  • Colombian assets have come under pressure this week, partly due to these concerns, with IBR swap rates rising by over 20bp and USDCOP up by 3% to 4148 yesterday. Analysts note that the unwinding of carry trades has also weighed on COP this week, with BBVA highlighting that the USDCOP4200-4300 area was resistance back in October, although they say it may need a stronger push than we have seen this week to get there. They believe the government will adjust expenses to lower expected tax revenues today, which should keep fiscal risks at bay.
  • On the data front, April industrial production is expected to rebound by 5.0% y/y (vs. -6.7% prior), while retail sales rise 1.8% y/y (vs. -5.6% prior) at 1600BST(1100ET). BanRep is also due to publish its economist survey later
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