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Medium Term Inflation Swaps Fall Sharply YTD vs Long Term Resilience

US-EU
  • 5Y inflation swaps have pulled back off earlier session lows today for both the US and EU but consolidate recent large declines.
  • The 2.34% for the US is -18bps ytd and the 2.27% for the EU is -47bps ytd, with similar moves compared to Dec averages.
  • In both cases, 5Y inflation swaps have now fallen below 5Y5Y values, something that has been the case since mid-Dec for the US (albeit more meaningfully from this year) but only this week for the EU.
  • These 5Y5Y-5Y spreads of +22bps and +8bps are approaching more typical pre-pandemic levels but much of the lifting in the EU has been done by the 5Y5Y holding at notably higher levels, further helping justify rate hikes. The EU 5Y5Y of 2.35% is 85bps above the 2018-19 average compared to 30bps higher in the US.

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