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Mercedes (A2/A): 1Q24 Results Review

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Neutral for spreads. Much like VW and STLA this had been flagged as a trough quarter. In line with peers FY24 guidance is maintained, anchoring spreads, but risks remain.


• Revenue beat by 1%, but adj. EBITDA missed by 3%. Car margins disappointed on volume declines, with high end models impacted by transitions. Supply chains are also blamed.

• FCF was pretty much in line with low capex cancelled out by inventory build (not many analyst estimates available however).

• Capital return remains aggressive versus peers, with a new €3bn buyback announced (€7bn over 12 months through 1Q25). Some will question the wisdom with R&D spend in EV still required. It is however covered by €8.4bn in expected FCF.

• Outlook for 2024 confirmed, with analyst expectations slightly below guidance.

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