BRIEF: EC Approves Italy's 5th NGEU Payment Request For EUR11 billion

MNI BRIEF: ECB's Eye On French Markets, Price Stability Key

MNI BRIEF: Lower Inflation Path Remains Bumpy - Lagarde

MNI BRIEF: 'Noise' Driving Economic Deterioration- Campos Neto

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 2

MNI BRIEF: China Aims For AI Standards By 2026

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Greece, EU Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 2.60% Aug-34 Bund Due Wednesday

Ita-coin Nowcast Negative For Second Month

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Mester: Rate Forecast Above Fed Median, Still Not Restrictive

FED
  • Speaking to CNBC, Mester (’22 voter) says her rate forecast is probably above the median Fed path vs the September dot plot showing a Fed Funds rates of 4.4% for end-2022, 4.6% end-2023 and 3.9% end-2024.
  • That most likely indicates she’s one of the six dots pencilling in a target range of 4.75-5% for end-2023, i.e. an additional 25bp of hikes through the year vs the median.
  • Current market pricing remains to the low side of that view, with an implied effective rate of 4.22% for Dec’22 and 4.27% for Dec’23.
  • Also of note: the current 3-3.25% as not in restrictive territory, the US economy has handled the Fed’s rate hikes, labor demand is still outpacing supply and with no market disruption seen in the US so far.
  • She repeats the need to get real rates into positive territory and hold them there, whilst acknowledging the stronger USD will help on the inflation side.
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.