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Mexican Data Scheduled, Broader Focus On ECB Rate Decision

LATAM
  • In LatAm, the Copom’s moderately dovish tweaks are unlikely to have a significant impact on local asset prices. Mexican unemployment, consumer confidence and gross fixed investment headline the docket as well as Brazil composite and services PMI’s for April. Uruguay CPI is also scheduled.
  • The ECB is set to hike its key policy rates by 25bp on May 4, with latest inflation and banking sector data diminishing the case for 50bp. Given the uncertain outlook, the ECB is unlikely to provide explicit forward guidance at this juncture, though will likely nod to further tightening being likely in the baseline scenario. There is potential for a TLTRO "bridge" operation to be announced Thursday; more surprising - but possible - would be a decision on APP runoff beyond June. Lagarde's subsequent press conference will also be carefully watched for signals on how close to the peak rate the ECB have now become.
  • Despite an extension of post FOMC greenback weakness overnight, the USD index has somewhat recovered heading into NY hours and remains close to unchanged on the day. EURUSD came within four pips of the year’s highs at 1.1095 but has moderated to around 1.1060 ahead of the ECB.
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