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Mexico Analysts Notch Inflation Forecasts Higher Across This Year and the Next

LATAM
  • The Citi analyst survey for Mexico was released late yesterday, with analysts expecting the Banxico to raise rates by 75bps at the August meeting. The end-2022 inflation forecast was revised higher to 7.60% from 7.00%, with 2023 raised to 4.50% from 4.35%. 2022 GDP views were unchanged at 1.80%, while 2023 growth view was cut to 1.80% from 1.90% prior.
  • Mexico’s Gross fixed investment data for April came in below expectations, although still picked up to 7.0% vs. Exp. 7.2%.
  • Colombian inflation data overnight came in just below expectations, with M/M CPI at 0.51% vs. Exp. 0.54% and Y/Y at 9.67% vs. Exp. 9.73%. Core price growth slowed to 0.47% on the month, but accelerated to 6.84% from 6.50% on the year.
  • The Colombian minutes release out overnight showed that the rate hike of 150bps across June is not a signal that future rate rises will be of the same size. The decision to raise rates to 7.50% was unanimous and further inflation could build from the weak currency. Note that since this meeting, the currency has weakened further – touching a new record low against the USD.
  • In Chile, polling out yesterday showed that 48% of voters are primed to reject the draft constitutional changes tabled earlier this week, with 31% backing the new format. This marked a 9ppt jump for those opposing the change.
  • The Uruguayan central bank decide policy later today, and are expected to raise rates by 50bps to 9.75%.
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