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MEXICO: Economic Activity Data Eyed, Inflation and Banxico in Focus Next Week

MEXICO
  • April Economic activity (1300BST/0800ET) is expected to rise 3.53% compared to the same month last year, according to a Bloomberg survey. Elsewhere on the docket today, President AMLO will hold an event with President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum in Oaxaca.
  • Focus then turns to next week, where risks appear to be balanced over whether Banxico could deliver a 25bp rate cut or continue to hold the overnight rate at 11.00%. The minutes of the May meeting suggested a June adjustment may be considered and is made more likely considering the downside surprise for Core CPI in May. However, post-election market turbulence, the sharp depreciation of the peso and a cautious Fed might be skewing risks towards another hold. Mid-month inflation data is due Monday and could provide a crucial ingredient for the committee.
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