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MEXICO: Firmer Risk Sentiment Bolsters MXN Recovery

MEXICO
  • A relatively dovish lean from the BOJ overnight has prompted a more optimistic risk backdrop across global markets and as such, the Mexican peso has seen renewed strength with USDMXN (-1.44%) trading back towards unchanged levels on the week.
  • Spot resides back at the key technical breakout seen earlier in the week at 19.2322 and daily and weekly closes either side of this level will remain in focus for the short-term trend trajectory. Support to watch lies at 18.6458, the 20-day EMA.
  • The latest Citi survey of economists revised 2024 year-end headline inflation forecasts higher to 4.60% from 4.40% previously. Notably, year-end rate forecasts were also raised to 10.50% from 10.25%, with median estimates expecting the next rate move in September.
  • Despite this, Thursday’s Banxico meeting remains a close call between a hold and a 25bp cut. Our full preview is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65640/MNI%20Banxico%20Preview%20-%20Aug%202024.pdf
  • Elsewhere, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will hold a press conference at 1145 local time in Mexico City Wednesday. The briefing will follow a meeting between Sheinbaum and state governors which aims to discuss strategic projects.
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EM BulletMexicoBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion

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