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MEXICO: Itaú Expecting Clearer Weakening of Activity in H2

MEXICO
  • Following today’s data release, Itaú point out that the annual economic activity figure was mainly boosted by a favourable calendar base effect (Easter Holidays) which could explain the discrepancy between the upside surprise and the downside surprise with seasonally adjusted figures (-0.6% MoM/SA vs consensus of -0.25%). The weak monthly GDP print was dragged by all subindices.
  • Itaú expect activity to weaken more clearly in the 2H24 given softer fiscal expenditures after elections and amid the transition between administrations. 
  • The recent depreciation of the currency, associated to political uncertainty, is likely to mitigate the slowdown in activity, boosting remittances in MXN, a relevant determinant for private consumption, and manufacturing output.
  • Itaú note the latter has been relatively muted given the overly strong currency despite the resilient external demand. Their GDP growth forecast for 2024 of 2.3% has a downward bias.
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