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MEXICO: July Economic Activity, Retail Sales Expected At 1300BST

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • On the data front, July economic activity and retails sales figures will be published at 1300BST(0800ET). The market is looking for a 0.1% m/m increase in activity, following a marginal 0.04% m/m gain in June, lifting the annual rate of growth to +2.0% y/y. Meanwhile, retail sales are seen rebounding by 0.3% m/m, taking the annual rate to growth to -0.7% y/y, from -3.9%.
    • July Economic Activity IGAE YoY, est. 2.00%, prior -0.60%
    • July Retail Sales YoY, est. -0.7%, prior -3.9%
  • Later this week, attention will then turn to Banxico’s MPC meeting on Thursday, where another 25bp cut to 10.5% is expected. Friday’s Citi survey of economists revealed that analysts see the policy rate ending the year at 10.0%, down 25bp from the previous survey, before falling to 8.0% in 2025 (vs. 8.25% previously).
  • In other news, the ruling Morena party has elected the second-eldest son of outgoing President AMLO, as well as outgoing Interior Minister Luisa Maria Alcalde, for key roles within the party leadership. Andres Lopez Beltran will be Morena’s organisational secretary, while Alcalde will be the national party head.
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  • On the data front, July economic activity and retails sales figures will be published at 1300BST(0800ET). The market is looking for a 0.1% m/m increase in activity, following a marginal 0.04% m/m gain in June, lifting the annual rate of growth to +2.0% y/y. Meanwhile, retail sales are seen rebounding by 0.3% m/m, taking the annual rate to growth to -0.7% y/y, from -3.9%.
    • July Economic Activity IGAE YoY, est. 2.00%, prior -0.60%
    • July Retail Sales YoY, est. -0.7%, prior -3.9%
  • Later this week, attention will then turn to Banxico’s MPC meeting on Thursday, where another 25bp cut to 10.5% is expected. Friday’s Citi survey of economists revealed that analysts see the policy rate ending the year at 10.0%, down 25bp from the previous survey, before falling to 8.0% in 2025 (vs. 8.25% previously).
  • In other news, the ruling Morena party has elected the second-eldest son of outgoing President AMLO, as well as outgoing Interior Minister Luisa Maria Alcalde, for key roles within the party leadership. Andres Lopez Beltran will be Morena’s organisational secretary, while Alcalde will be the national party head.