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MEXICO: USDMXN Extends Losses to 1%, Back Below 18.00

MEXICO
  • USDMXN has extended back below the 18.00 mark in recent trade with gains for major equity benchmarks and the moderate improvement in the domestic backdrop contributing to the ongoing peso recovery. USDMXN is now also breaching support at 17.9811, the 20-day EMA.
  • We highlighted earlier that some names have expressed the view that MXN longs are attractive given the still strong fundamentals in Mexico, combined with its appealing carry profile.
  • Interestingly, ahead of the Banxico decision this week, many have cited the sharp weakness as a key reason for Banxico to remain cautious and hold rates at 11.00% again. Developments over the next few days could be crucial for the central bank committee and their expected trajectory for further monetary easing. TIIE swap rates are seen 5-8bps lower today across the curve.
  • For USDMXN, 17.7108 represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the post-election swing and will be eyed as the next support.
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