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Mid-Das Gas Summary: TTF Trends Lower on Weather

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is continuing the bearish trend and is easing back after a second vessel attack from Houthi rebels in the Red Sea offered some support to prices yesterday. Latest downside comes from an upward revision in temperatures with NW Europe seeing above-norm temperatures throughout December.

    • TTF JAN 24 down -1.5% at 35.27€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -1.5% at 35.53€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.4% at 35.31€/MWh
  • The TTF Summer 2024 discount to Summer 2025 continues to widen to the highest level since contract start, as front-curve bearishness has removed the risk premium for the summer, while above-average EU gas stock levels and recent below-norm storage withdrawals are limiting the need for high injections during next summer.
  • Weather forecasts for NW Europe have been revised milder with the continent seeing above-normal temperatures throughout December.
  • German natural gas consumption stood 2.6% below the 2018-2021 average last weeks, after rising 8.6% above the average in the week prior, driven by colder weather, Bnetza data showed.
  • European natural gas storage was down to 90.9% full on Dec 12 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 79.6% with warm weather driving smaller than normal withdrawals this week.
  • Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today up to 356.5mcm/d and still above the five-year average.
  • European LNG sendout dipped slightly to 385mcm/d on 12 December, from 400mcm/d the day before. Imports remain below levels seen last year.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in January 2024, February 2024 and March 2024, after exports to Europe were more profitable in February and March the previous day, according to BNEF.
  • LNG shippers are likely to engage in more destination swap deals for Asia-bound cargoes in 2024, to circumvent the congestion at the Panama Canal, according to BNEF.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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