Mid-Day Gas Summary: Gas Continues Bearish Trend

Front month TTF is trading lower today but remains within yesterday’s range weighed on by high storage levels and mild weather, shrugging off unplanned supply disruptions in Norway.

• TTF MAR 24 down -1.4% at 23.84€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.5% at 24.4€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down at 325.9mcm/d with unplanned outages today at Aasta Hansteen and Karsto adding to a planned capacity reduction at Karsto until late April.
• The weather forecast continues to show above normal temperatures for much of Europe throughout the two week period although temperatures in NW Europe are expected to dip slightly closer to normal later this week.
• Net European gas storage is above the previous five year range highs at 65.12% full on Feb 19 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 48.7%.
• European LNG sendout was up to the highest since Jan 18 at 391mcm/d on Feb 19 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of around 340mcm/d over the previous week.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased by 3.9% on the week to 2.13mn tons as of 18 February, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• North Asian spot LNG prices have reached a near three-year low, amid milder weather, healthy stockpiles, and robust global supply.
• Germany’s SEFE may keep a natural gas supply contract with Russia as rising transportation costs mean the shipments of Yamal LNG to India’s GAIL may end up in Europe.
• Indian natural gas consumption rose 24% year on year in January, with gains seen from all sectors, according to ICIS and PPAC data.