Mid-Day Gas Summary: Henry Hub Ticks Up

TTF front month is edging up despite bearish near-term fundamentals amid small outages in Norway and curtailed feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals.

• TTF APR 24 up 0.2% at 24.95€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.2% at 25.27€/MWh
• Above normal temperatures across Europe are forecast to persists although could drift back towards normal into the second week of the outlook.
• European gas storage was 60.09% full on Mar. 12 according to GIE with withdrawal rates rising to slightly more than normal. The seasonal five-year average is 42.9% and storage was 56.5% full this time last year.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 338.1mcm/d amid ongoing outages at Karsto, Sleipner and Oseberg this week.
• European LNG sendout was up slightly to 368mcm/d on Mar. 12 but still below an average of 413mcm/d in March 2023.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at 61.2m/d.
• Shell continues to maintain a long-term contract with Novatek for the purchase of LNG, according to TASS, citing the company’s annual report.
• A significant European gas price increase is not expected even with a phase-out of the remaining Russian gas supply to Europe, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen at Global Risk Management said to Montel.