Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Eases Back

TTF is easing back after yesterday’s surge, but the front month remains elevated above Friday’s close. Supply risks from ongoing Norway maintenance outages, US export terminal maintenance and some lingering concerns from Australia LNG supply all supported the move combined with easing temperatures in early October.

• TTF OCT 23 down -7.2% at 41.25€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -5.2% at 47.33€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.5% at 48.58€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down slightly to 222.6mcm/d but further capacity is expected to return later this week. Outages are expected to total 63mcm/d by the end of this week and then fall to 34mcm/d by 8 October.
• TF is expected to be pressured lower as Norwegian production returns, given elevated storage levels and with the lack of colder-than-average temperatures across NW Europe in the two-week forecast according to Goldman Sachs.
• European natural gas storage is up to 94.96% full on 24 Sep according to GIE data with injection rates recovering this week and compared to the five year average of 86.3%.
• The latest two week weather forecast is relatively unchanged from yesterday and shows above normal temperatures over the next week before cooling back towards normal during the first week of October.
• LNG sendout to Europe was at 250mcm/d on 24 Sep with flows well below last year’s levels of around 370mcm/d.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased 30% over the last week to 3.11mn tons as of 24 September, the highest level since 22 May and 49% above the 2018-2022 average.
• Global LNG imports rose by 8% on the week to 7.6mn tons in the week 18-24 September, driven by shipments into India and some European countries according to BNEF.
• China’s demand for spot winter LNG cargoes may fall from last year, as alternative supplies keep the market “generally in balance” according to Sinopec Economic and Development Research Institute.