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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Extends Gains

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is trading higher today amid higher storage withdrawals and supported by the risk of higher demand due to colder weather into next week. The upside risk is offsetting the easing supply risks from the Middle East and Egypt LNG while near term supplies remain healthy.

    • TTF DEC 23 up 2.3% at 45.65€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 2% at 46.6€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.1% at 45.4€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to fall below normal into the coming weekend and then expected to remain below throughout the remaining two week period.
  • German natural gas consumption last week stood 17.8% below the 2018-2021 average, partially due to temperatures above the seasonal norm weighing on household consumption, Bnetza data showed.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are higher again up to 358mcm/d today compared to an average of 334mcm/d so far in November.
  • Small withdrawals have taken European natural gas storage down to 98.69% full on Nov 21 according to GIE data and still well above the seasonal five year average of 87.74%. EU natural gas storage must be at least 45% full on 1 February and preferably 55% full at that time according to new targets published in the EU’s Official Journal on Thursday.
  • European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 413mcm/d on Nov 21 compared to flows of approximately 450mcm/d seen this time last year.
  • The Czech Republic secured 2bcm of LNG supplies via the German Stade LNG terminal from 2027 onwards, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Greece is planning to launch the 5.5bcm Alexandroupolis floating LNG terminal by 10 March 2024, according to Gastrade, cited by Bloomberg. The FSRU was previously reported to launch by the end of 2023.
  • The LNG vessel leaving the Egyptian Idku plant is signalling Pakistan’s Port Qasim as a destination, Kpler ship-tracking data showed, while winter LNG exports from the country typically head to Turkey and Europe.
  • Renewed spot LNG activity in Japan is not expected but should remain in focus according to ICIS.
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