Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls

Front month TTF is trading lower on the day amid bearish near-term fundamentals with forecasts for mild weather. The US Freeport LNG export terminal is scheduled to restart Train 3 this week, which is adding to the downside.

• TTF APR 24 down 0.8% at 24.74€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down 1% at 25.07€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to remain above normal throughout much of the two week forecast although could drift towards normal in the last week of the month.
• European gas storage was 60.59% full on Mar. 10 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 43.14% and 56.9% this time last year. Data is showing small withdrawal rates this week down to just 906GWh/d.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down at 337.2mcm/d amid small, planned field and processing plant outages this week.
• European LNG sendout was steady at 333mcm/d on Mar. 10 but below an average of 364mcm/d so far in March and 413mcm/d in March 2023.
• Freeport LNG is scheduled to complete its train 3 repairs this week, according to guidance from the operator, Bloomberg said.
• The UK is proposing to build new gas plants to improve energy security according to the government on Tuesday.
• The estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days surged by 27% to 3.47mn tons in the week to 10 March, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• A building LNG glut will send prices to $6.50 per million British thermal unit in 2026 according to Morgan Stanley – around half the average of 2023.
• China’s state owned Unipec has asked US regulators for an opportunity to intervene in a request from Venture Global LNG to extend the commissioning period of its Louisiana project.
• A large-scale tanker has moored at the new jetty at Algeria’s Skikda port for the first time, according to Platts.
• Global LNG imports declined by 13% on the week to 7.8mn tons in the week 4-10 March, amid lower shipments to China and South Korea according to BNEF.